How You Can Predict The Future Better Than World-Famous Experts - The Art & Science of Risk with Dan Gardner
In this episode we discuss the radical mismatch between your intuitive sense of risk and the actual risks you face. We look at why most experts and forecasters are less accurate than dart throwing monkeys. We talk about how to simply and easily dramatically reduce your risk of most major dangers in your life. We explore the results from the “good judgment project” study of more than 20,000 forecasts. We talk about what superforecasters are and how they beat prediction markets, intelligence analysts with classified information, and software algorithms to make the best possible forecasts and MUCH more with Dan Gardner.
Dan Gardner is a New York Times best-selling author and a senior fellow at the University of Ottawa’s Graduate School of Public and International Affairs. His latest book Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, which he co-authored with Philip Tetlock. Superforecasting was chosen as one of the best books of 2015 by The Economist, Bloomberg, and Amazon. Dan is also the author of Future Babble and Risk: The Science and Politics of Fear and previously worked as a policy advisor to the Premier of Ontario and a journalist with the Ottawa Citizen.
How and why people make flawed judgments about risk
The radical mismatch between our intuitive sense of risk and the actual risks we face
Why we are the safest, healthiest, wealthiest people to live on planet earth (and we don't realize it)
Why we focus on vivid, dramatic risks, and ignore the real dangers in our lives
How to simply and easily dramatically reduce your risk of most major dangers in your life
The power of “meta cognition,” what it is, and why it’s so important
Lessons you can learn from the mega successful investor George Soros
Why most forecasters are less accurate than monkeys throwing darts
The difference between foxes and hedgehogs (and why you never want to be one of them)
The inverse correlation between fame and prediction accuracy
What cancer diagnosis shows about how averse people are to uncertainty
The universal principles of good judgement
The importance of intellectual humility and intellectual curiosity
Why certainty is an illusion and nothing is ever certain
Why everything is a question of degrees of maybe (probabilistic thinking)
The results from the “good judgement project” study of more than 20,000 forecasts
What superforecasters are and how they beat prediction markets, intelligence analysts with classified information, and software algorithms to make the best possible forecasts
The differences between these “superforecasters” and regular forecasters
The importance of being “actively open minded"
Why you should unpack smaller questions & looking things like base rates
How to use “fermi estimates” to solve tough and challenging problems
Why the growth mindset had a huge impact on positive ability to forecast
Need to do some planning for next year? Listen to this episode!
Thank you so much for listening!
Please SUBSCRIBE and LEAVE US A REVIEW on iTunes! (Click here for instructions on how to do that).
SHOW NOTES, LINKS, & RESEARCH
[SOS episode] Fixed Versus Growth Mindsets
[Book] Mindset: The New Psychology of Success by Carol S. Dweck
[Book] Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction by Dan Gardner and Philip E. Tetlock
[Book] Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman